Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Exceed $1.3 Trillion in 2026
Global semiconductor
revenue is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion in 2026, exhibiting the highest
growth in the last two decades, according to Gartner, Inc., a business and
technology insights company.
“Amid high demand for AI processing, data centre networking and
power, and memory price inflation (memflation),
the semiconductor
industry is projected to achieve a third consecutive year of double-digit
growth in 2026 – a milestone that underscores the sector’s pivotal role in
the AI technology stack,”
said Rajeev Rajput, Senior
Principal Analyst at Gartner.
Gartner forecasts
semiconductor revenue will grow 64% in 2026, with memory revenue expected to
increase threefold amid memflation (see Table 1). Gartner analysts said that memflation is profound, but it is
not perennial. Gartner estimates DRAM and NAND flash annual
prices in 2026 will increase by 125% and 234%, respectively, and any meaningful
pricing relief is not expected until late 2027.
AI
Semiconductors Will Represent 30% of Total Semiconductor Revenue in 2026
AI semiconductors are
expected to account for approximately 30% of total semiconductor revenue in
2026 and will remain the driving force behind the overall industry
growth. Hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure buildouts remains strong
with spending expected to increase by more than 50% in 2026, driving demand for
AI accelerators, including GPUs and custom non‑GPU chips.
“Memflation will destroy,
or at least delay, non-AI demand into 2028, to varying degrees depending on the
application,” said Rajput. “Technology suppliers should prepare for higher
prices during the first half of 2026, followed by persistent but moderating
price increases throughout the rest of the year. CIOs and IT leaders should be
cautious about signing supply agreements with unfavourable pricing terms that
extend beyond 2027.”
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