Surging Memory Costs Will Reduce Global PC and Smartphone Shipments in 2026: Gartner
Soaring memory costs are projected to drive
worldwide PC shipments to decline 10.4% and
smartphone shipments to drop by 8.4% in 2026, compared to 2025 levels,
according to Gartner, Inc., a business and technology insights company.
Gartner estimates a 130% surge in combined
DRAM and solid-state drive (SSD) prices by the end of 2026, which will increase
PC prices by 17% and smartphone prices by 13%, compared to 2025 levels. This
situation will concentrate demand on premium devices.
“This is the lowest level of device shipments
witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices
available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally
altering upgrade cycles,” said Ranjit Atwal, Sr. Director Analyst
at Gartner.
Because of rising costs, Gartner expects PC
lifetime to increase by 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers by the
end of 2026. These delayed upgrades will further raise concerns over increased
security vulnerabilities and the challenges of managing older devices.
Entry-Level PCs
Face Obsolescence
PC memory costs are
expected to peak at 23% of the total bill-of-materials (BOM) up from 16% in
2025. “This sharp increase removes vendors’ ability to absorb costs, making
low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500
entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” said Atwal. “In addition,
rising AI PC
prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until
2028.”
Basic
Smartphones Take the Biggest Hit
The memory-driven price
surge will disproportionately affect entry-level smartphones, leading buyers to
choose refurbished or second-hand models or keep their phones longer. Premium
smartphones will be less affected because of their higher margins.
Gartner analysts expect
basic smartphone buyers to exit the market five times faster than premium
buyers in 2026.
Critical
Pricing Windows Opens in the First Half of 2026
Soaring memory prices are
expected to impact the PC market hardest, reshaping its financial dynamics. As
a result, PC vendors should be prepared to accept a unit volume decline to
sustain profitability, rather than eroding margins to chase price-sensitive
buyers.
“Overall, device vendors
and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimise
pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability
from the second quarter onwards,” said Atwal.
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